Hardening prices of manufactured items during the month may refrain the Reserve Bank of India from cutting rates in its policy review on February 8.
Young investors could allocate in the proportion of 70:20:10 to equity, debt and gold.
The biggest risk in under-construction projects is delay and non-completion.
'The actions of Indian monetary authorities will depend on how quickly they want the inflation to come down to 4 per cent.'
Retail inflation declined to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent in December 2022, mainly due to softening prices of food items, according to official data released on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 5.88 per cent in November 2022 and 5.66 per cent in December 2021.
'The central bank has highlighted that the slowdown in growth has been limited to a few sectors and overall growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.'
'Spending by the middle class is limited with a focus on savings. However, there is buoyancy at the top-end.'
Debt mutual fund (MF) schemes are set to register the best calendar year (CY) performance in the last four years despite no changes in the interest rate. An analysis of one-year performance of debt funds show that many of the schemes are set to deliver double-digit returns in CY 2024.
Retail inflation fell to an 11-month low of 5.88 per cent in November, mainly due to softening prices of food items, official data showed on Monday. This is the first time in 11 months that the retail inflation print has come within RBI's tolerance band of 4 (+/- 2) per cent. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation was 6.77 per cent in October 2022, and 4.91 per cent in November last year.
German luxury carmaker Mercedes-Benz on Friday said it will hike prices of its vehicles in India by up to 3 per cent on its entire model range in the portfolio from January 1, 2025, citing a rise in input costs, inflationary pressures and higher operational expenses. Prices of Mercedes-Benz cars in India will be revised by Rs 2 lakh for the GLC to Rs 9 lakh for the top-end Mercedes-Maybach S 680 luxury limousine, Mercedes-Benz India said in a statement.
Outgoing Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Tuesday that restoring inflation-growth balance is the most important task ahead of the central bank. Addressing a press conference on his last day as the central bank chief, Das said his successor will have to navigate the changing world order, effectively deal with cyber threats, and focus on harnessing new technologies.
Ask rediffGURU and PF expert Milind Vadjikar your insurance, stocks, mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will start on Wednesday even as there is no clarity on whether Governor Shaktikanta Das, the chair of the panel, will continue in office after his term ends next week. The outcome of the meeting will be announced on Friday by Das at 10 in the morning.
The FMCG industry in India achieved a 10.6% growth in value terms in the December quarter of 2024, driven largely by rural markets, which have surpassed the large urban markets in growth for the fourth consecutive quarter. Festive demand and consumption-driven growth played a key role, with overall volume up 7.1% despite inflationary pressures. However, the industry also saw a "preference shift of consumers towards smaller packs" due to high food inflation. Local manufacturers continue to outperform larger FMCG companies, fueled by consistent volume growth.
Packaged tea consumption in India has been under pressure due to inflation across the consumption basket coupled with higher tea prices. This is forcing tea drinkers to downtrade, especially in rural areas. Milk prices have also gone up and this has impacted tea consumption along with delayed winters in the north, companies have said. NIQ (formerly known as NielsenIQ) data shows that the packaged tea category grew around 4 per cent in value and volume terms in 2022 compared to 2021.
The equity benchmark indices posted their strongest weekly gains in years, driven by bargain hunting and optimism over a reversal in foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows. The Sensex rose 558 points, or 0.7 per cent, on Friday to close at 76,906, while the Nifty 50 gained 160 points to end at 23,350. Over the past five sessions, both indices advanced around 4.3 per cent - marking the Sensex's best weekly performance since July 22, 2022, and the Nifty 50's strongest rally since February 5, 2021.
The RBI on Friday retained inflation forecast for FY23 at 6.7 per cent amid uncertain price trajectory on "geopolitical shocks" and on hope that inflationary pressures would ease with pick-up in kharif sowing and supply chain improvements. In its previous monetary policy review in June, it had projected retail inflation for 2022-23 at 6.7 per cent, higher from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to raise the benchmark repo rate by a steep 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent with immediate effect to tame inflation while supporting growth.
The increase by more than three per cent is largely due to jump in the rate of inflation in the case of WPI for fuel, power, light and lubricants
Despite gross domestic product (GDP) growth being lower-than-expected for the July-September quarter, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not cut the policy repo rate in the review meeting scheduled for next week due to high inflation in October, according to experts. "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation breaching the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band in October (6.2 per cent year-on-year) is not a favourable backdrop for the MPC to commence the easing cycle, even as the growth outcome disappointed the MPC's expectations," said Shreya Sodhani, regional economist at Barclays, who expects the policy repo rate to be kept unchanged in the December meeting.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages.For India's largest engineering firm, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the analysts expect a 20 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, and an 8.1 per cent core business Ebitda margin, up 40 bps from a year ago.
The October-December quarter (Q3FY25) results of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) indicated weak demand, with urban growth muted and rural showing recovery. Consolidated revenue grew by 1.6 per cent (volume was flat) to Rs 15,818 crore, due to price hikes. Prices of key raw materials such as palm oil and tea remained elevated, leading to compression of gross margin.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
'Growth, liquidity and deposit mobilisation are likely to be discussed during the interaction.'
RBI's projection of retail inflation at 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal is neither too high to deter private consumption, nor so low as to weaken inducement to invest, the Economic Survey said on Tuesday. However, entrenched inflation may prolong the tightening cycle and therefore, borrowing costs may stay 'higher for longer', it said. The Economic Survey 2022-23 was tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
Pulses inflation remained stubborn at 35.56 per cent.
Several US companies, including McDonald's, Walmart and Facebook parent company Meta, have ended or scaled back their DEI programmes since Trump was elected in November last.
'Unless banks focus on the Rs 10-15 lakh loan segment, growing affordable housing will remain a challenge.'
Prices are likely to rise further as demand grows in coming months due to festivals
India spends significantly less on defence than could be expected from a country that faces simultaneous armed threats from two hostile neighbours -- China and Pakistan.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday upped inflation projection for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the upside risk to inflation persists and the recent spike in tomato prices would fuel food inflation. Also, high global crude oil prices would add to the upside pressure on inflation. The upward revision in inflation projection comes as domestic retail inflation has remained above RBI's comfort level of 6 per cent for four months in a row, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine war which has impacted the prices of commodities across the globe.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The impact of fiscal measures announced by the government to contain inflation will be seen in the next few months because of the base effect, reports Indivjal Dhasmana.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its quarterly monetary and macroeconomic review, has expressed concerns on the existing high levels of inflation rate when based on the consumer price index (CPI).
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said people are finding current interest rates "very stressful" and urged banks to make them affordable. Speaking at an event organised by State Bank of India, the finance minister said that at present, India requires industry to ramp up and invest in new facilities, and added that lowering lending rates can help achieve the "Viksit Bharat" aspiration.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the government is keeping an eye on inflation which is purely "extraneous" nowadays because of fuel and fertiliser prices. Replying to the debat on the Supplementary Demands for Grants in the Rajya Sabha, the minister said wholesale inflation has fallen to a 21-month low. Later, the Rajya Sabha returned the Supplementary Demands for Grants to the Lok Sabha, thus completing the process of authorising the government to spend an additional Rs 3.25 lakh crore in FY2022-23.
Days before Diwali, the monthly economic review by the finance ministry has highlighted moderation in urban demand, softening consumer sentiments and limited footfall as areas that need to be watched. In its review, released on Monday, the ministry also noted the early signs of artificial intelligence displacing workers, as described in anecdotal reports. The commentary from several large consumer goods companies, including Nestl India, Hindustan Unilever, and ITC, in their recent quarterly earnings, has been around a sluggish urban demand. Rural consumption, however, has mostly seen a revival, the companies pointed out.
The Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said that the "momentum of inflation is on a downward slope" and the central bank would continue to strike a delicate balance between the need to contain price rise and ensure economic growth. The Reserve Bank's inflation projections, Das said, are "robust" but contingent on downside and upside risks associated with the movement of global crude oil prices. The RBI takes into account a particular range within which crude prices are expected to fluctuate considering all the factors that can be anticipated and that can be sort of foreseen as of today, he said.
In line with the government's expectations, inflation, which rose for the previous two weeks, fell below 8 per cent for the week ended September 4 mainly due to fall in the prices of vegetables and some edible oils.
Worried about the possibility of oil prices' pushing up inflation, the Reserve Bank on Tuesday said chances of prices going up in the coming days need to be viewed against this background.
